ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has brought an unprecedented challenge to healthcare services. The authors' COVID-adapted pathway for suspected bowel cancer combines two quantitative faecal immunochemical tests (qFITs) with a standard CT scan with oral preparation (CT mini-prep). The aim of this study was to estimate the degree of risk mitigation and residual risk of undiagnosed colorectal cancer. METHOD: Decision-tree models were developed using a combination of data from the COVID-adapted pathway (April-May 2020), a local audit of qFIT for symptomatic patients performed since 2018, relevant data (prevalence of colorectal cancer and sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic tools) obtained from literature and a local cancer data set, and expert opinion for any missing data. The considered diagnostic scenarios included: single qFIT; two qFITs; single qFIT and CT mini-prep; two qFITs and CT mini-prep (enriched pathway). These were compared to the standard diagnostic pathway (colonoscopy or CT virtual colonoscopy (CTVC)). RESULTS: The COVID-adapted pathway included 422 patients, whereas the audit of qFIT included more than 5000 patients. The risk of missing a colorectal cancer, if present, was estimated as high as 20.2 per cent with use of a single qFIT as a triage test. Using both a second qFIT and a CT mini-prep as add-on tests reduced the risk of missed cancer to 6.49 per cent. The trade-off was an increased rate of colonoscopy or CTVC, from 287 for a single qFIT to 418 for the double qFIT and CT mini-prep combination, per 1000 patients. CONCLUSION: Triage using qFIT alone could lead to a high rate of missed cancers. This may be reduced using CT mini-prep as an add-on test for triage to colonoscopy or CTVC.
Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Colorectal Neoplasms/diagnosis , Diagnostic Errors/statistics & numerical data , Occult Blood , Triage/organization & administration , Clinical Audit , Colonoscopy , Decision Trees , Early Detection of Cancer/methods , Humans , Scotland , Sensitivity and Specificity , Tomography, X-Ray ComputedABSTRACT
Background: Physical activity (PA) is known to be a protective lifestyle factor against several non-communicable diseases while its impact on infectious diseases, including Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is not as clear. Methods: We performed univariate and multivariate logistic regression to identify associations between both objectively and subjectively measured PA collected prospectively and COVID-19 related outcomes (overall COVID-19, inpatient COVID-19, outpatient COVID-19, and COVID-19 death) in the UK Biobank cohort. Subsequently, we tested causality by using Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses. Results: In the multivariable model, the increased acceleration vector magnitude PA (AMPA) is associated with a decreased probability of overall and outpatient COVID-19 with an odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of 0.80 (0.69, 0.93) and 0.74 (0.58, 0.95), respectively. No association is found between self-reported moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) and COVID-19 related outcomes. No association is found by MR analyses. Conclusions: Our results indicate a protective effect of objectively measured PA and COVID-19 outcomes (outpatient COVID-19 and overall COVID-19) independent of age, sex, measures of obesity, and smoking status. Although the MR analyses do not support a causal association, that may be due to limited power. We conclude that policies to encourage and facilitate exercise at a population level during the pandemic should be considered.